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Syria, Russia

Ceasefire in Syria: how long will it hold?

A US-Russian brokered ceasefire between warring parties in Syria has taken effect and is to last for 48 hours. Earlier ceasefires have been broken swiftly, and there is much skepticism about the latest initiative.

Forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad walk at a military complex as one of them holds up a Syrian national flag, after they recaptured areas in southwestern Aleppo on Sunday that rebels had seized last month, Syria.
Forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad walk at a military complex as one of them holds up a Syrian national flag, after they recaptured areas in southwestern Aleppo on Sunday that rebels had seized last month, Syria. SANA/Handout via REUTERS
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The ceasefire was concluded last Friday by the US and Russia after their foreign ministers met on several occasions, including at the recent G20 meeting in Hangzhou, China. Over the weekend Iran said it was optimistic about the deal but expressed worry that "terrorist groups" would take advantage of the situation. 

But apart from the so-called Islamic State armed group that all actors seem to be fighting against, the ceasefire concerns several other armed groups.

“There are the armed opposition groups which are labeled as "Free Syrian Army", which is basically an armed opposition with no Islamic agenda, says Rim Turkmani of the London School of Economics. “And they receive direct support from many of the countries, including the US, the UK and France.

Another group, not listed as an extreme organization, is the Islamist opposition Ahrar al-Sham, which enjoys support from some regional countries.

A third group includes Al-Qaeda associated Jabath al Nusra, which recently re-branded itself as [Jabath Fatah] al Sham, plus a few other organizations.

For many observers the problem is how to decide which groups are to be designated a ‘terrorist organization’ and which ones are not. In many cases, the lines seem blurred.

But analysts say that both Russia and the US can find out their allegiances. “It is very difficult, but not impossible,” Turkmani told RFI. “Because many of them receive support from them and they have a good feeling of their capacity.

“But so far the opposition received mixed messages from the US and this is why they recently say that they feel stabbed in the back by the US after the last announcement on the agreement with Russia.

Meanwhile, Al Qaeda and the Islamic State will not feel bound to any agreement, since they seem to be at the hit list of all parties involved, at least nominally.

But what about Syria itself, how do people in Damascus look at these latest developments?

“Today there is no trust between [the] players on the ground,” says Maria Sa’adeh, an independent member of the Syrian parliament.

“What the Syrian army did today constitutes a big victory in the North of Syria and especially in Aleppo against terrorist groups,” she told RFI, referring to an increased campaign carried out at the eve of the ceasefire.

Even she, however, has difficulties distinguishing among the different opposition groups.

“When we talk about some terrorist groups which are so-called "moderate" opposition or armed opposition in the north of Syria, there is much ambiguity. We don't know exactly which part fights against terrorism.”

Syrians under the Assad regime often refer to anybody who fights their government as “terrorists,” i.e. not only the Islamic State armed group and Al Qaeda, but also the Free Syrian Army. After all, the initial goal of the Free Syrian Army was to topple Assad, before the war became more complex with the emergence of the Islamic State armed group.

Today there is no trust between the players on the ground

04:17

Syria ceasefire

Jan van der Made

“It is a big question for me why the USA wants to engage in a ceasefire in the north of Syria,and especially in Aleppo for 48 hours to open this humanitarian channel,” says Sa’adeh. And although she does not question the motives of Russia, Syria’s ally, she expressed doubts about the American agenda: “If the US really wants to fight terrorism, they should collaborate with the Syrian government against these groups. For me it constitutes a grave violation of our territory. If any state wants to fight against terrorism, they should collaborate with the Syrian state.

Analysts agree it is not likely that Washington will agree to cooperate in any form with the government of Bashar al-Assad after it has been supporting the armed opposition against him and called repeatedly for him to step down. Meanwhile, people in the north of Syria hope that the ceasefire will hold so that at least some humanitarian assistance can be given to them, after months of uninterrupted bombing and warfare.

“At the end of February there was a cessation of hostilities agreed by the US and Russia, and then we've seen a significant reduction in violence,” said Turkmani, adding, “the number of civilian casualties was reduced at least by 3,000 in two months. So this is an improvement. Now it did not hold for long, the Russian and American agreement was not strong enough. Now it seems that there is a stronger agreement. So we hope that this can hold for longer.”

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