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French press review 12 September 2016

There's a glimmer of hope of peace in Syria as Damascus accepts the latest US-Russian truce. The reaction of the various armed opposition groups is now crucial. François Hollande has seen his approval rating improve, but not by much. And is the political left finished in France?

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Le Monde's main story concerns the weekend acceptance by the authorities in Damascus of the US-Russia truce agreement, a deal which, technically, should see five years of civil war in Syria come to an end later today.

If it is undoubtedly positive to see Washington and Moscow agree about anything in a conflict in which the two capitals support opposing sides, the realities on the ground may quickly snuff out this latest glimmer of hope.

The opponents of the Al Assad regime are waiting to see who stops firing first. With so many "moderate" anti-Assad factions, any truce is likely to be fragile, to say the best of it. And, of course, there's the problem of the so-called Islamic State armed group, the fundamentalist caliphate constructors who have no interest in regional peace on anyone's terms but their own, and who refuse to recognise the authority of Washington, Moscow or Damascus.

The best we can hope for, suggests Le Monde, is at least a pause in the bombing and shooting, so that humanitarian aid can be brought to the thousands of civilians caught between the fighters.

The editorial in Catholic La Croix says Turkey, Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who are supplying weapons to one side or the other, need to be encouraged to clarify their real objectives and to recognise that Islamic State is everybody's enemy.

For La Croix, this new hope is still a terribly long way from real peace.

Only 81 percent of French voters disapprove of Hollande!

Right wing Le Figaro notes that the popularity ratings of the French president and his Prime Minister have improved . . . 19 percent of French voters now approve of François Hollande; 23 percent have a positive view of Manuel Valls.

Left-wing rebels meet and greet

Le Monde reports that almost the entire gang of alternative left-wing presidential contenders (in other words, those who are fed up to their back teeth with François Hollande,) were in evidence at this weekend's annual communist get-together, La Fête de l'Humanité. If the basic idea of the festival is to celebrate the end of the summer with a few ageing folk-singers and chat with comrades from the good old days over a bowl of ecologically-sound, fair-trade quinoa, the imminence of a presidential election makes this year a bit special.

In evidence were Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Arnaud Montebourg, Benoît Hamon, Marie-Noëlle Lienemann and Gérard Filoche, representing a variety of socialisms, from pale pink to fire-engine red, and Cécile Duflot, Karima Delli and Yannick Jadot, all green, who between them account for three-quarters of the ecology contingent hoping to be the next French president.

The bad news is that they were all perhaps wasting their time.

Left unlikely to survive the first round, whoever runs

I say this on the basis of another article in Le Monde which uses the evidence of the most recent opinion poll to show that the left and the environmentalists can throw their hats at next year's presidential race. No matter who survives the left-wing primary, the second round of the next election for the top job in France will be contested exclusively between the mainstream right wing (represented, in all probability, by either Alain Juppé or Nicolas Sarkozy), and Marine Le Pen of the extreme right Front National.

In fact, according to the same analysis, Alain Juppé is the only candidate likely to prevent Marine Le Pen from winning the first round, a contest in which Mrs Le Pen will collect between 26 and 29 percent of the votes.

Left unlikely to survive. Period.

And according to François Hollande's former justice minister, Christiane Taubira, the political left could be on the way out completely.

In an interview in left-leaning Libération, Taubira says French socialism is under serious threat because of deep divisions and rampant personal ambition.

There is a real risk of the far right Front National coming to power, says Taubira, with their divisive and agressive view of society, their heritage of intolerance. The former minister points out that the mainstream right has broadly accepted the worst of the Front National platform in the scramble to regain power, and can hardly be expected to challenge the excesses on those they imitate. Only a united left, she says, stands between France and government by xenophobes and nationalist bigots.

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