Sarkozy comeback looms over UMP crisis meeting
Sarkozy seems set to shave but will not ride a white horse.
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Since Nicolas Sarkozy lost to François Hollande in May 2012 he has said virtually nothing, and grown designer stubble.
This has led fantasies to abound among his fans that, at a time of his choosing, he will send a signal by shaving off the stubble and then ride to the rescue of a France sinking into ruin under the presidency of François Hollande.
But with his political party, the conservative UMP, now engulfed in a bitter crisis, ahead of a key meeting about its future on Tuesday, supporters as well as critics in the party are warning that he can no longer remain ambiguous about his plans - it is time to announce his intentions or dispel expectations.
The timing in no way suits Sarkozy.
The UMP could hardly be in worse shape. The two years since 2012 have seen Sarkozy’s defeat, parliamentary election wipeout, Jean-François Copé’s election as party leader bitterly contested amidst accusations of fraud, a hugely expensive move to new premises, a fine for massive overspending on Sarkozy’s unsuccessful campaign and most recently the devastating ‘Bygmalian’ allegations, denied by Copé, that he was involved in a campaign financing scam.
Following the Bygmalian allegations and the (related) success of the Front National in EU elections, Copé was forced to announce his resignation at an extremely heated meeting on 27 May.
It was hastily agreed at the meeting that a triumvirate of three former prime ministers would oversee the running of the party until the party conference, probably in October.
But within days, Sarkozy supporters were complaining that there was no legal basis for the triumvirate to run the party.
They don’t really mind former Chirac’s former Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin but worry that the other two are both likely to use the leadership of the UMP to obstruct a Sarkozy comeback.
One is François Fillon, prime minister under Sarkozy but now an outspoken critic, who has already announced his intention to stand for President of France in 2017, whether or not Sarkozy stands.
The other is Alain Juppé, hugely unpopular when he was also Jacques Chirac’s Prime Minister but now vying with Sarkozy in opinion polls and widely praised for results in the city of Bordeaux where he is Mayor. He would be a strong rival for the presidential candidacy.
At a meeting of the party politburo on Tuesday evening, agreement must be reached on who is actually in charge of the UMP at the moment and a date for proper elections to the party.
Very soon, and crucially, they must also decide whether any future UMP leader will also be the party’s candidate for the French Presidency or not and, most controversially, whether the UMP should hold primaries in 2016 to choose its candidate to be president of France.
All of this comes too early for Sarkozy. He hoped to avoid becoming involved in the daily running of a political machine with its squabbles and bureaucracy but instead to return as a hero in a blaze of excitement, on a white horse if possible, to save France - but not quite now.
Sarkozy’s supporters dismiss the idea of their man competing in a primary – leaders emerge naturally, they insist. And they point to François Hollande, who won his party’s primary in 2011 and is now rated the worst French president since 1945 in opinion polls,
Sarkozy regularly tops the polls among UMP voters as their favoured candidate for 2017 but Juppé is beginning to catch up and it is possible that the public are growing impatient with Sarkozy’s waiting game.
Sarkozy is also still under investigation in connection with various different allegations concerning corruption or perverting the course of justice.
His supporters say the enquiries are politically motivated.
Fillon and Juppé are not the only ones who want to obstruct Sarkozy.
Mayor of Saint-Quentin Xavier Bertrand has already declared he wants to stand for the presidency in 2017 and many others appear close to such announcements.
Everyone agrees the UMP is in a mess. It might decide to change its name, as suggested this week by Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, the unsuccessful UMP candidate for Mayor of Paris in March, but that is the least of its problems.
With a president and government so apparently out of tune with the nation, the opposition UMP should be wildly popular.
Instead personal rivalries and infighting, careless (some say corrupt) financial stewardship and a lack of clear direction in the UMP have led many to conclude the Front National is the only election alternative to the governing Socialists.
The UMP needs a leader and/or presidential candidate who will take it in a clear direction – either more towards the centre or further to the right.
The party, which has a very significant catholic constituency, has been unsure how to deal with some important recent developments, such as the movement against gay marriage and adoption in France, which gathered huge momentum last year, leading to comparisons with the US Tea Party movement.
France is struggling with huge problems today and as in any democracy, needs an effective opposition. It could be time for Sarkozy to shave off the stubble or grow a proper beard.
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