Can left-wing Syriza form Greece's next government?

Radical left-wing leader Alexis Tsipras is struggling to form a government after Sunday's general election in Greece. On the second day of a three-day mandate to form a government, the Syriza leader is holding talks with left-wing parties inside and outside parliament and was expected to have successive meetings with the leaders of the three larger parties afterwards.

Reuters/Eurokinissi

The chances of Syriza forming a viable government are slim. Tsipras has declared that he is not ready to work with New Democracy or Pasok, the parties that have dominated Greek politics since 1974, are blamed for the sorry state of public finances and signed the bailout agreement.

Political leaders in Athens are jostling for position right now.

If all mandates come up empty, there will be fresh elections in about four weeks. If the mandate held by Tsipras actually bears fruit, then they want the best deal for their parties.

The constitution says that a government must obtain the manifest (or confirmed) majority in parliament. This is usually translated as 151 seats in the 300-strong chamber.

But there is another possibility: if a large (or largish) party declares that it will abstain from the vote of confidence, then the majority can be lower than 151, although it cannot be less than 121, according to the constitution.

So if one of the mainstream parties decides to abstain and the other agrees to support a left-wing coalition without participating in the cabinet, then Syriza could form a minority government. Nevertheless, New Democracy leader Antonis Samaris seems to have effectively torpedoed this option last night.

The Democratic Left party has already agreed to participate in a government with a far-reaching social and parliamentary majority. This is not exactly the same as the proposal of Syriza for a left-wing government.

The Communists reject cooperation with any party. Right-wing populist Independent Greeks claim they see eye to eye with Syriza on the bailout, but disagree strongly on national issues and immigration.

New Democracy leader, Antonis Samaras, said last night that, if Syriza is planning to form an anti-European Union left-wing front, it will face a pro-European centre-right front, led by New Democracy.

Pasok is keeping all channels of communication open. Leading socialists said Pasok is ready to discuss with Syriza, as long as it gets assurances that all necessary measures will be taken for Greece to remain in the eurozone.

The position of Syriza regarding the bailout agreement might be a bit more nuanced than the way it is being presented.

Tsipras has said that Greek voters have in effect rejected the memorandum and has called for three things:

• a moratorium on debt-servicing;
• the cancellation of all further wage;
• pension reductions and the restoration of collective labour agreements.

Syriza takes great pains to assure everyone that it is in favour of Greece’s participation in both the European Union and the eurozone.

It maintains that the policy mix that is being followed today is going nowhere, that its only tangible result is the pauperisation of the Greek people.

This could be a strong negotiating stance with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, and the left-wingers reproach Pasok and New Democracy for not following it since May 2009.

Some members of the Syriza leadership point to a number of recent statements by the likes of François Hollande, Christine Lagarde, Charles Dallara and Jean-Claude Juncker that austerity without growth leads to an impasse. Or, at least, that is how Syriza interprets these statements.

If the left parties prove unable to form a government, the president will convene a meeting of the leaders of all parties represented in parliament.

At this meeting in the presidential palace he will try to convince them to accept a compromise, either a technocrat prime minister or a government of national salvation.

If that also fails, the head of one of the country’s three highest courts will be appointed interim prime minister, a caretaker government will be sworn in, the parliament will be dissolved and new elections called.

These fresh elections must be held 20 to 30 days after the dissolution of parliament.

In such a case, the larger parties presumably expect their share of the vote to increase, while smaller parties are probably afraid that their share will shrink in favour of New Democracy and Pasok – or even Syriza.