Paris Perspective #2: Could Brexit work to France's advantage? - Colin Hay
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At the strike of midnight Brussels time on 1 January 2021, the long wait for Britain to leave the European Union finally came to an end with a whimper, not a bang. What has been called "the slowest moving bullet in history. Four-and-a-half years from gun to foot" finally hit its target. Now that Brexit is done, the EU appears stronger, the United Kingdom as divided as ever, and France remains vigilant that historic, cross-channel rivalries are kept in check. But could the Brexit cloud hold a silver lining for Paris?
The 11-month transition period for the EU and the UK to plot their future relationship following Britain's decision to end a tempestuous marriage of 47 years was marked by intransigence, acrimony, lethargy and despair. But on Christmas Eve, when a breakthrough deal was announced and the "no deal" Sword of Damocles was removed, London and Brussels were able to offer themselves a kiss on the cheek, best of luck for the future, insisting they'll remain "the closest of friends."
"The tone changed dramatically on the 24th," says Colin Hay, political scientist specialising in UK politics with Sciences-Po. "With a deal clutched from from nowhere, it seems. That said I think most commentators thought it was always likely that we would get to a point where the deal would be struck, and this deal is a very thin deal."
What's in it for Britain? Well, the good news for Britain is that it does allow Britain to continue to sell goods and in good markets, not in service markets, with access to the European Union on a non tariff basis, as long as it doesn't diverged from the regulatory regime broadly speaking of the European Union. That's that's good news. And it's certainly better news than if there hadn't been a deal."
Have finger, will point
But on the sidelines of the Brexit transition negotiations, it became clear that French President Emmanuel Macron was getting increasingly frustrated with the intrasigence of British negotiators led by David Frost. And fact that the EU negotiating team was spearheaded by French politcal heavyweight Michel Barnier was not lost on the pro-Brexit press in Britain, making it par for the course to blame Paris for the sluggish progress in the talks.
But did the Brexit press have a point, here? Has Macron been biding his time to see what might fall in France's favour, deal or no deal? Was there any behind-the-scenes serenading of financial institutions? Infrastructure tenders? Port and hauliage development? Pharmaceuticals?
"All of those are areas in which France will seek to maximise gains, but it's actually minimizing losses, says Hay. "I mean, when you talk about ports ... there will be a significant change in what's coming in to French ports and where it's coming from. [But] we're talking more about damage limitation and reorientation and compensation and adapt or adaptation to change the situation.
Less cluttered on the EU stage?
The French have sought to bring [financial institutions] to Paris in particular. And the Germans have sought to bring to Frankfurt some financial services. It's true that there may be some financial services gains there, so finance is is a potential gain. But actually, the French and the Germans have been trying to do that for for well over a year, with not a massive change in the distribution of where bankers work. So these gains are not going to be massive," Hay adds.
But when it comes to the French president himself, Colin Hay underlines "I do, however, think that from a French perspective that political gains are potentially significant. Macron may feel himself a more powerful actor on the European stage, without the British presence. [Macron] may feel empowered on a European stage by Brexit, but that's more political, I think."
But looking to the future, the Brexit deal that was brokered on Christmas Eve is still very much in its infancy, with many blanks to be filled-in over the coming months and years, before it settles into a fully fledged agreement that will determine relations and cooperation between the UK and the continent.
But in the interim, is there any common ground between the two leaders? How will bilateral relations hold up between the UK and France with Johnson and Macron at the helm?
"It's kind of interesting, because in all kinds of respects, Macron is seen from the UK as a surprisingly liberal president in a way. And in a way, Johnson's position, is clearly is a liberal one, but he's a sort of conservative nationalist.
Same, same. But different
"There are differences between their positions, but they're not not as far apart politically, as one might imagine. But I think they will continue to ramp up the rhetoric when the rhetoric benefits them to some extent.
But at the same time it's a sort of smoke and mirrors kind of thing. There is a great deal of an affection between these two countries that always has been and I think it's done in a slightly jovial kind of a way."
However, according to Hay, there is one big difference between the two leaders and that's their juxtaposition in ideology when approaching global poltics. "Boris Johnson's politics, a little like Trump's politics, is very anti-multilateral, is very anti-regional, is kind of global, but a global community of nations. Whereas Macron's politics is much more multilateral, is much more European, clearly he wants to be seen to take the lead on that."
This edition was produced by Cécile Pompéani, Vincent Pora and Erwan Rome.
Produced & presented by David Coffey
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