West looks on as Turkey-Russia relations deepen following Sochi summit

Recent tensions in relations between Ankara and Moscow had stoked hopes among Turkey's Western allies of a rupture in the close relationship. But a summit on Monday between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may have dashed those hopes, as they committed themselves to deepening their cooperation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, welcomes Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the talks at Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, Monday, 4 September 2023. © Alexei Nikolsky / AP

Meeting at Russia's Black Sea resort Sochi on Monday, Erdogan failed in his bid to persuade Vladimir Putin to return to the 2022 UN-brokered Ukraine grain export deal as the Russian leader reiterated his stance that key sanctions against Moscow need to be lifted for any resumption of Ukrainian exports.

Putin's rebuttal is a blow to Erdogan, given he was a key architect of the deal along with the United Nations Secretary general Antonio Guterres.

But Erdogan's close relationship with Putin was seen to have cooled of late after he angered Moscow with his support for Ukraine's NATO membership bid.

#Turkish President #Erdogan at today's meeting with #Putin in #Sochi will offer Turkish mediation for negotiations on a peaceful settlement of the war in #Ukraine.

One of the main topics of the talks will be the resumption of the "grain deal", according to Turkish media. They… pic.twitter.com/7RvKmb1fbi

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 4, 2023

Bilateral cooperation secured

But the Turkish leader didn't leave the summit empty-handed, with the two leaders committing themselves to wide-ranging cooperation from tourism to energy to foreign aid.

The bilateral deals will dash the hopes of Turkey's Western allies of a rupture in the Erdogan-Putin relationship.

"The Sochi meeting definitely demonstrated that the interaction grew between two sides between Russia and Turkey, and both sides are in certain way indispensable for each other," according to Russia expert Zaur Gasimov at Bonn University in Germany.

 "They continue to cooperate. They continue to interact. And a number of chapters in that book of cooperation between Moscow and Ankara grew tremendously since the last two or three years, and the Sochi meeting demonstrated that very clearly," Gasimov added.

At the Sochi meeting, Putin said a deal between Russia, Turkey, and Qatar to supply a million tonnes of grain to six African countries was close to fruition – on Wednesday, Moscow confirmed Turkey's participation in the accord.

• Turkey may be key to salvaging Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports

Fears of sanction 'loophole'

Under the agreement, Turkey would process the grain into flour, with Putin adding that Turkey would also receive grain for its own market.  Experts warn, however, that Russia could use the deal to export stolen Ukrainian grain, breaching international sanctions, putting the spotlight on Ankara's stance of not enforcing Western sanctions against Russia – to which, Turkey says, it is not bound.

"Turkey is very important [to Russia]," said George Voloshin for ACAMS, a financial crime watchdog.

"There are many intermediaries in Turkey that help Russian interests, that help Russia procure goods from the West, including basic goods, as well as very sensitive goods.

"So it's really up to Turkey's government to make sure there's no re-exportation of European, American or UK goods into Russia. And I think there's a lot to do in this respect," added Voloshin.

Since the European Union imposed sanctions on Russia, imports to Turkey from European countries have surged with a corresponding increase in exports from Turkey to Russia, fuelling suspicions companies in Europe are using Turkey to circumvent the sanctions.

• Erdogan hopes a U-turn can salvage Turkey's floundering economy

Trade and infrastructure investments

Meanwhile, Putin and Erdogan committed themselves to increasing bilateral trade from $70billion to $100billion, including turning Turkey into a regional hub for distributing Russian gas.

The leader's discussions also included Russian companies starting construction of a second nuclear reactor in Turkey. Boosting trade and infrastructure investments are seen as vital for the ailing Turkish economy.

Experts claim the Sochi summit characterized by smiling and relaxed leaders and a commitment to deepen cooperation underlines that despite recent strains between Ankara and Moscow, Erdogan is too important for Putin to lose.

"Putin cannot face losing Erdogan," says Columnist Ilhan Uzgel for the Kisa Dalga, a Turkish news portal. "So they [Moscow] tolerate anything Turkey is doing inside NATO membership. I mean, that is for sure.

"They don't care about what Erdogan is doing in his ties with Western countries and Western institutions," continued Uzgel. "They are more interested in what kind of cooperation they can have with Erdogan, and they cooperate in many, many areas."

At least for now, some analysts say hopes of a diplomatic rupture between Ankara and Moscow are on hold, with Putin focusing more on areas of cooperation than points of difference.