Is the EU facing a 'New Right' surge in Europe's 2024 elections?
The 27-member European Union is gearing up for parliamentary elections this June that some observers believe could be the most important polls the bloc has ever held. With commentators warning that populist right-wing parties pose an existential threat to the liberal centrism underpinning the EU, RFI asks whether fears of a resurgent far-right are merited.
Issued on:
Pundits are predicting that a transformative wave will sweep across the political landscape of the European Union, making 2024 the year of the so-called New Right – a moniker used to describe the normalisation of erstwhile fringe parties that are increasingly part of mainstream politics across the bloc.
The forthcoming elections in June – spanning all 27 EU nations – will witness the active participation of at least one New Right or far-right party.
In some countries, such as Finland and Sweden, these parties are already part of national coalition governments, while in Hungary, Italy and Slovakia, they currently lead the government.
In Belgium, the symbolic heart of the European Union, a far-right party is now the country's largest.
Even traditional powerhouses France and Germany, long-time proponents of an "ever closer union", are not immune to the rise of populist nationalism.
As France heads for presidential elections in 2027, the National Rally's Marine Le Pen waving from the steps of the Elysée Palace is a very real prospect.
In Germany, the Alternative for Germany continues its ascent, challenging mainstream parties and their attempts to collaborate on a cordon sanitaire to keep the far-right on the sidelines.
Wake-up call
To traditional centrists – such as the European People's Party, the largest party in the European Parliament since 1999 – the New Right's ascendance represents the EU's darkest nightmare.
Yet the New Right's burgeoning influence, especially in central and eastern EU states, is forcing the centre-right to consider working with them.
While mainstream politicians often brand far-right parties extremist or fascist – and indeed some of them have their roots in avowedly fascist movements – their success in the polls are a wake-up call for to move beyond these labels and at least try to understand their policies.
Many New Right parties champion economic and social policies resembling those of centrist social-democratic parties, coupled with Euroscepticism and opposition to globalisation. Several are relatively moderate compared to their populist counterparts in the United States.
However, far-right ideologies vary widely across the bloc, from national and social conservatism to more radical political approaches like those espoused by populist parties in central and eastern Europe.
Migration – a common concern among these parties – initially fuelled their support in the 2010s, as thousands fled the fall-out of the Arab Spring and the rise of the Islamic State armed group.
A significant portion of the New Right's base is made up of working- and lower-middle-class voters disillusioned with mainstream politics. Working-class support for traditional left-wing parties, in particular, has eroded.
Test of democratic credentials
With most of New Right parties' gains in national parliaments relatively recent, their ability to keep election promises remains to be seen.
The 2024 European elections will put the New Right's democratic credentials and the viability of their hard-pitched "transformative policies" to the test.
Meanwhile fears of an existential threat to the EU project may be overstated.
While there is a sustained trend toward stricter immigration policies across the EU – most recently and controversially in France – public support for state intervention in the economy, climate action and the bloc's response to the Covid-19 pandemic challenges the notion that the continent's voters are universally embracing the far right.
Poland demonstrated as much when Donald Tusk's centrist alliance unseated the far-right Law and Justice Party, which had been steering the country on a confrontational, ultra-nationalist trajectory for almost 10 years.
- What are the controversial immigration reforms adopted by France?
- Does France's hard-line immigration law breach the constitution?
Europe at a crossroads
While EU elections have historically been dismissed as inconsequential, some analysts are calling the June polls a "make-or-break moment" for the European project.
Opinion polls suggest that more of the EU's 400 million voters than ever before plan to take part, seeing the potential for EU-level action to address critical issues such as security, the cost-of-living crisis, migration and climate change.
As Europe stands at this crossroads, the New Right's rise cannot be ignored.
But as a transnational economic powerhouse that holds stability and cooperation at its core, the EU is not necessarily headed for a political earthquake.
The elections may reshape the power play within the European Parliament, but the broader EU institutions are expected to maintain their centrist stance and potentially give a second mandate to Ursula von der Leyen as EU Commission president – a position that is nominated by the European Council and elected by MEPs.
Nonetheless, the response of Europe's mainstream parties to their electorate's changing priorities will determine whether the bloc emerges from the 2024 elections a frozen-middle power or seizes the opportunity for positive transformation amidst myriad uncertainties.
Daily newsletterReceive essential international news every morning
Subscribe